Beyond headlines: why planning for one future is no longer enough
In an age of permanent shock, crisis preparedness is a leadership capability: reading patterns, thinking across scenarios, and integrating risk and strategic planning.
Five years ago, I wrote in the Globe and Mail that when populists cast democracy as a fraud, a dictatorship may pop up anywhere. Political behaviour untethered from democratic values can quickly become the new norm.
Little did I know that this stab at crystal-ball gazing wasn’t much of a stretch after all.
Headlines fade into memory. Patterns carry forward.
Over the holidays, I thought back on the past year’s news, searching for a common thread pointing to what may lie around the corner.
In 2025, headlines began lining up in columns starting with T.
Trump, Trump, Trump.
For me, the “rapture” toward brand-new transactional playbooks was laid bare in an extraordinary Oval Office scene when one president told another, “make a deal or we’re out.” On live television. Not much of a casino-goer, I saw a pattern. A card game had become the metaphor for political discourse. Who holds the cards is all that matters. Bluffing is fair game. The world is one big reality show.
In the tariff fog, Trump rhetoric about Canada becoming the U.S. 51st state ushered in an unprecedented wave of patriotism north of the border. Storefronts flared red and white. Buy Canadian, support Canadian became the new mantra.
The spotlight glared at some stories and not others. A tech executive caught on a “kiss cam” with the company’s HR chief at a Coldplay concert burst from social media into the news cycle and dinner-table conversations. What could have been. What should have been.
I still have no idea what actually happened – and don’t particularly care. Here’s what caught my attention. A CEO “apology” on social media looked real, but turned out to be fake. A video featuring Gwyneth Paltrow looked fake (what does she have to do with this, anyway?), but turned out to be real. Go figure.
At year’s end, a different story briefly broke through. As rising sea levels threaten the South Pacific nation of Tuvalu, its first climate migrants left home to start new lives in Australia. Here is a pattern with consequences far greater than a CEO on a kiss cam. Yet this story didn’t get much play. Can a slow-burn climate refugee crisis possibly compete with a viral CEO relationship scandal?
Of course, these headlines are not, by any stretch of the imagination, a reflection of the world’s full risk profile. What’s real? What’s smoke and mirrors? We don’t really know. But here’s what’s certain. The stories that break through do signal a world that is very shock-prone.
Great power rivalries. Security vacuums. Existential threats to sovereignty. Climate instability. Technology racing ahead of us.
In these uncharted waters of volatility, it’s tempting to brace only for the next big swell right in front of us. But the waves behind may be even bigger.
A “knock on wood” strategy doesn’t work. Organizations that prepare for only one future are more likely to be knocked down by the rogue waves they didn’t see coming.
What does shock-resilient leadership look like?
Know the backbone and strategic agenda of your business. What problem are you solving? What value do you bring to the table? How do you make money? Be crystal-clear about the story you want to tell.
Anchor yourself in a clear North Star. When there is no playbook, it serves as a compass, keeping you grounded in what you stand for as you navigate rogue waves, headwinds and sentiment swings.
Think not one or two, but many steps ahead, weighing the medium- and long-term implications of today’s decisions.
Work through multiple scenarios to get ahead of uncertainty, preparing not only for the most likely threats, but also those that could be most damaging.
Build strong relationships across the C-suite and board to sustain ongoing dialogue about what’s around the corner and what’s boiling up.
Deliver uncomfortable news early, when there is still time to mitigate or prevent harm. Create a culture where candidness is encouraged and expected.
Use conversations about risk to uncover opportunities to diversify, scale or pivot – reframing disruption as a catalyst for growth.
It’s a new day, it’s a new dawn.
The first few weeks of 2026 are revealing a configuration of risk and disruption that looks like a multiverse. Everything, everywhere, all at once.
Headlines swing from Venezuela to Greenland to more tariffs. Wait. Maybe not. Military force. Wait. Maybe not. More weapons. Yes, that’s for sure. The pattern is unmistakable: the world is stocking up on weapons.
This week, we are still digesting an eventful World Economic Forum in Davos. For one, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s viral speech stole Trump’s thunder. It’s, officially, a new world order. And if we are not on the table, we are on the menu. Wow.
This day a year from now, will borders be redrawn? Will “democracy” become a bad word? Will there still be a Western alliance?
We don’t know what’s around the corner.
But we can watch the trends that produce disruption. The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report points to geoeconomic confrontation, misinformation and disinformation, and social polarization as the top risks over the next two years.
Every organization has its own risk profile to work through.
You might be wondering where to start.
The short answer: start anywhere.
Dust off an old plan. Run a crisis training. Commission a risk audit.
At NBAU, we offer a Crisis Resilience Check – a complimentary one-hour consultation designed to pressure-test the minimum level of preparedness often noticed only by its absence. Explaining why it’s missing becomes painfully hard when stakeholders – from staff to clients or regulators – start asking questions.
Chances are, any of these pathways will catalyze the changes that need to happen.
In an age of permanent disruption, crisis managers must act like strategists. They don’t just think about risk and mitigate damage. They look for opportunities to adapt, grow and thrive. Strategists, in turn, must behave like crisis managers. They should think the unthinkable and brace for the multiverse of “what ifs” instead of a single expected future.
This is what leadership looks like in a rapidly changing, shock-prone world.
Natalia Smalyuk is an award-winning advisor and trainer specializing in strategic communication, crisis resilience and stakeholder engagement. She leads NBAU, a Women Business Enterprise (WBE) certified communication consultancy. What is NBAU? Not Business as Usual. Why NBAU? Because there’s no such thing as business as usual for leaders navigating volatility, uncertainty and risk across an increasingly complex global landscape. NBAU supports organizations in building resilience before, during and after disruptive events through planning, training and scenario readiness that broadens the understanding of crises and enables positive action in an uncertain world. Our Resilience Unfiltered Series encourages open dialogue on tough issues that rarely makes it onto conference stages. The NBAU Baseline Readiness Checklist helps organizations define their minimum threshold of preparedness – often noticed by its absence in a crisis. We are working on a new “Tip of the Week” feature – more soon. Ready to start your resilience journey? Email nsmalyuk@nbau.ca to book a complimentary one-hour consultation.